The elevated terrorist threat level remains due to the serious security situation

The renewed decision regarding the terrorist threat level is based on the overall assessment of the situation. This assessment has taken into account both the recent one-year assessment from the National Centre for Terrorist Threat Assessment (NCT) and the Swedish Security Service’s continuous assessments of the attack threat.

– The threat could quickly be affected by incidents occurring around the world. Lately, serious incidents and attacks have taken place in Europe and Australia. Conflicts, war, and spreading of propaganda may contribute to incidents in other parts of the world affecting Sweden’s national security. It is critical that we monitor such developments in order to take timely action, says Charlotte von Essen, Head of the Swedish Security Service.

The attack threat against Sweden mainly consists of lone actors or small groups using simple means to act against more accessible targets. The intent to commit a terrorist attack can often be traced back to a specific event or circumstance, either real or perceived, which serves as a catalysing factor. The threat mainly originates from violent Islamism and violent right-wing extremism.

In Sweden, violent Islamism mainly consists of facilitation activities in the form of radicalisation, recruitment, and financing. Violent right-wing extremism is characterised by great variety and different goals. There are some organisations that are more established, but expansion is mainly taking place in loosely-bound networks and online groups.

At the same time, the Swedish Security Service sees a development where the focus is more on the violence itself rather than on ideological motivation. As a result, individuals are more inclined to move between different groups and contexts advocating the use of violence. This mobility also contributes to the fact that individuals, to an increasing degree, can develop their own ideology tailored to their own situation and surroundings.

Changing international situation

The overall threat against Sweden remains serious. The main threat factors are Russian goals and Russian security-threatening activities in Sweden’s vicinity. Russia remains the greatest threat to Sweden.

Russian intelligence and security services are mainly conducting intelligence activities, influence operations, and technology procurement. There is also a Russian sabotage threat targeting the West’s support activities on behalf of Ukraine. Ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s activities have become more risk-inclined and opportunistic, even outside the boundaries of the conflict zone.

In the Swedish Security Service’s assessment, Russian security-threatening activities may become both more extensive and more aggravated. Russia has become more offensive, conducting covert influence activities targeting European countries, including Sweden.

– World developments are characterised by uncertainty and rapid changes. As a security service, we assess how external threats and circumstances are affecting Sweden’s national security. The security situation remains serious, and we assess that the threat against Sweden will continue to deteriorate in the next few years. We are prepared for this, says Charlotte von Essen.

Technological developments also increase threat actors’ abilities to attack critical assets. This means that the Swedish Security Service must handle an increased amount of security threats that could lead to serious consequences.

– But foreign powers are not behind everything that goes on. We have to be on our toes, take action, and investigate suspicious incidents. At the same time, it is important not to jump to conclusions, says Charlotte von Essen.