Assessment of the terrorist threat 2025

The terrorist threat level remains high, level four on a five-level-scale. The Head of the Swedish Security Service took this decision in January. This decision was based largely on the NCT's annual assessment of the terrorist threat to Sweden 2025, a publicly available version of which has now been published.

"Over the past year, Sweden has gone from being a more prioritised target in the propaganda, to once again being viewed as a legitimate target as part of the West, for Islamist terrorist organisations. Simultaneously, we can observe several uncertainties in the world around us which can affect the terrorist threat", says Ahn-Za Hagström, Head of the National Centre for Terrorist Threat Assessment (NCT).

During 2024, no terrorist attacks were conducted in Sweden. The main terrorist attack threat to Sweden in 2025 will likely continue to be posed by lone actors who are inspired to action based on violent Islamist or violent right-wing extremist ideology. NCT has also observed an ideological hybridisation in terms of violent extremists adopting one another's ideas.

"We are also seeing hybrids between different types of actors who are jointly taking advantage of society's vulnerabilities in order to achieve their objectives. The connections between state actors, individuals active within criminal networks, and people motivated by ideologies, are contributing to terrorism no longer being conducted in the ways we have come to expect", says Ahn-Za Hagström.

Foreign powers continue to be interested in using both proxies and their own personnel, acting under a cover, to commit acts of violence which could be tried as terrorist offences.

"The use of proxies to commit acts of violence occurs to varying extents, and it is primarily foreign powers who have a well-established capability to conduct this type of activity", says Ahn-Za Hagström.