Serious security situation in a time of uncertainty

The Swedish Security Service has, during the past year, observed more complexity than previously where the threats intertwine, reinforce one another, and are thereby amplified. The situation has deteriorated.

“It is important that we don't normalise the new security situation. We have to be observant so that we can see and understand if the situation gets worse and so that we can piece the various incidents together to form the bigger picture. At the same time, we must be prepared to act promptly while remaining calm and view the facts that are available during various incidents, before we can draw conclusions,” says Charlotte von Essen, Head of the Swedish Security Service.

Foreign powers are interested in gathering information around various contexts involving Sweden, such as our membership in NATO, the EU and western support to Ukraine. Their actions mean that Sweden has become a platform for other countries’ conflicts without being directly involved.

For some time now we have been observing indications of changes in Russian security-threatening activities towards Sweden. The risk appetite of Russia has increased in terms of targeting the west through influence campaigns and sabotage.

“Foreign powers as well as violent extremists try to take advantage of our vulnerabilities and influence the situation for their own purposes. Also, we seem to be moving towards a more diversified terror threat, both in the short and long term, involving the actions of foreign powers, often via proxies,” says Charlotte von Essen.

The terrorist threat level has been at a high level since August 2023, at level four on a five-level scale. The Head of the Swedish Security Service has now made a new decision to keep it at this high level. This decision was based on both an overall assessment from our Service’s counter-terrorism function, and on the annual assessment from the National Centre for Terrorist Threat Assessment (NCT).

The threat that there will be an attack against Sweden remains and this is posed mainly by violent Islamism, and by violent right-wing extremism. We assess the threat to stem mainly from lone-wolf actors, or small groups using relatively simple methods against critical targets.

“The serious security situation is a fact that we must learn to live with in our daily life. Protective security is an issue for society as a whole: By reinforcing protection we can minimise risks and increase our resilience,” says Charlotte von Essen.