Assessment of the terrorist threat to Sweden in 2019

2019-05-13

Islamist-motivated terrorism continues to pose the main terrorist threat to Sweden. This was reported by the National Centre for Terrorist Threat Assessment (NCT) in its one-year assessment for 2019.

The terrorist threat level in Sweden remains elevated: level three on a five-level scale. This threat level was decided by the Director General of the Swedish Security Service in January 2019, based on the one-year assessment produced by the NCT that is now being published.

Islamist-motivated terrorism will likely pose the main terrorist threat to Sweden in 2019.

“Sweden will continue to be regarded as a legitimate target by extremists in both Sweden and abroad in 2019. There are a small number of individuals who have both the intent and capability to carry out a terrorist attack in Sweden”, says Linda Thörnell, Head of the NCT.

Decreased threat of terrorism from left-wing and right-wing extremists

It is assessed that the terrorist threat from violence-promoting right-wing extremism will be low in 2019. A small number of individuals are assessed to have the capability, and possibly the intent, to carry out a terrorist attack. No terrorist attack threat to Sweden from violence-promoting left-wing extremists has been identified.

The NCT one-year assessment for 2019PDF (pdf, 142.8 kB)

Short and long-term assessments

The NCT is a permanent working group staffed by personnel from the National Defence Radio Establishment (FRA), the Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST) and the Swedish Security Service.

The NCT makes strategic analyses of incidents, events, trends and tendencies within terrorism and assesses their impact on the terrorist threat to Sweden and Swedish interests in the short and long term.

National Centre for Terrorist Threat Assessment