Assessment of the terrorist threat in 2018


As reported in the one-year assessment by the National Centre for Terrorist Threat Assessment (NCT), the main terrorist threat to Sweden is posed by Islamist-motivated terrorism

The terrorist threat level remains elevated; level three on a five-level scale. The overall threat level for Sweden was decided by the Director General of the Swedish Security Service in December 2017. This decision is based on the assessment produced by the NCT, which has now been completed.

The main terrorist threat to Sweden in 2018 is likely posed by Islamist-motivated terrorism.

"There are individuals both in Sweden and abroad who consider attacks against targets in Sweden legitimate. A few of these individuals have both the intent and the capability to carry out attacks. A potential terrorist attack could be planned or carried out by order of actors either in Sweden or abroad, but attacks could also be carried out on the perpetrator’s own initiative", says Linda Thörnell, Head of NCT.

Tensions between extremist environments

The election campaign in 2018 will likely have a greater impact on the violence-promoting politically motivated environments than it will have on the violence-promoting Islamist movement. Tensions resulting from the election campaign will probably lead to an increased use of violence by and between the violence-promoting right-wing extremist environment and the violence-promoting left-wing extremist environment.

Short and long-term assessments

The NCT is a permanent working group staffed by personnel from the National Defence Radio Establishment (FRA), the Military Intelligence and Security Directorate (MUST) and the Swedish Security Service. The NCT makes strategic analyses of incidents, events, trends and tendencies within terrorism and assesses their impact on the terrorist threat to Sweden and Swedish interests in the short and long term.

The National Centre for Terrorist Threat Assessment